Chelsea's
4-1 thrashing of Burnley at Turf Moor earlier this month stands out for a
number of reasons.
Firstly, it marked just the second time in a year that they had earned three
successive victories, coming as it did on the back of a Carabao Cup win over
Brighton and three points being claimed at Fulham.
The result was also the first time Chelsea had scored more than three goals
in a competitive match since a 6-0 thumping of Southampton in March 2022.
If any further evidence were needed of just how bad the Blues had been for
the past year, the success at Burnley also meant Chelsea went into a
mid-season international break on the back of a win for the first time in 19
months.
Being able to spend the last week and a half relaxing in the belief that
their side may have finally turned a corner has been a rare luxury for
Chelsea supporters.
But are these results evidence that the west Londoners are getting back to
where they think they belong or simply the product of favourable fixtures?
Moreover, is there a rude awakening on the horizon when Arsenal visit
Stamford Bridge on Saturday, live on Sky Sports?
Pochettino's undeniable influence
Anybody watching Chelsea closely this season would have been able to see the
positive impact Mauricio Pochettino has made since taking charge.
The results - just two wins from their first seven games - may not have
backed it up, but Pochettino's Chelsea are easier on the eye than either of
Graham Potter or Frank Lampard's sides.
Whereas Chelsea's underlying numbers last season showed they were nothing
more than a mid-table team, the former Tottenham boss has generated clear
improvements all over the pitch.
Chelsea now rank seventh for expected goals in the Premier League after
coming 12th last season, while they are fourth for expected goals conceded
compared to 11th in the previous campaign.
What is more, Chelsea have gone from seventh to second for possessions won
in the attacking third per match, pointing to obvious improvements in their
ability to press the opposition.
But before getting too carried away, it's important to note Pochettino
continues to grapple with the issue that undermined Potter - Chelsea's
continued underperformance in front of goal compared to their expected
output.
Last season, the Blues had the worst expected goals differential in the
Premier League, hitting the net 12.08 fewer times than they should have
done.
That profligacy continues to be a problem, with only Everton's misfiring
forwards outdoing Chelsea in that particular metric this season.
Pochettino will no doubt hope that routine win at Burnley was the moment the
floodgates finally opened.
Fernandez is key - but where are the
goals?
The player that perhaps best represents the changes Pochettino has
implemented is Enzo Fernandez, the midfielder who shone as a No 8 when
helping Argentina to World Cup glory but then saw himself replacing Jorginho
in front of the back four after joining Chelsea in January.
Fernandez only showed glimpses of his quality as Chelsea limped to the end
of a dispiriting season but Pochettino was in no doubt of Fernandez's ideal
role when speaking to Sky Sports in August, firmly stating the 22-year-old
"is a No 8".
The wins over Fulham and Burnley coincided with Pochettino settling on a
three-player midfield, with Moises Caicedo as the pivot and Conor Gallagher
and Fernandez on either side.
The World Cup winner has quickly become key to Chelsea's set-up, ranking
second for completed passes and third for final-third completed passes per
90 among all Premier League midfielders this season.
But, as with Pochettino's team, there is still plenty of room for
improvement - particularly in front of goal. Fernandez is yet to score in 26
Premier League games, while he has just two assists.
Extracting more of his compatriot's undoubted potential would go a long way
to helping Pochettino sustain his side's improvement.
Sterling embracing leadership role
The pivot to youth under Todd Boehly and Behdad Eghbali's leadership has
been so drastic that, at just 28, Raheem Sterling is the third-oldest player
in Chelsea's first team.
The four-time Premier League winner looked lost after joining Chelsea last
season, at times selected as a striker by Thomas Tuchel and a wing-back by
Potter, with injuries also restricting his progress.
But with Pochettino consistently asking him to play in his favoured role on
the wing - and perhaps spurred on by his ejection from the England squad -
Sterling has attacked his second season at Stamford Bridge head on.
The former Manchester City forward ranks above all his team-mates for goals
and successful take-ons per 90 in the Premier League, while he also has the
rare distinction of being a Chelsea forward that is outperforming his xG
total.
Sterling revealed during pre-season that he feels "great" after changing his
diet in a bid to shake off his injury troubles and the decision appears to
be paying dividends as he looks to lead Chelsea's youthful dressing room by
example.
Arsenal provide acid test
As with most things, there are two ways of looking at Chelsea's progress
during the first few months of Pochettino's reign.
Fernandez and Sterling have been impressive, a first-choice XI is beginning
to emerge and the team are on the up across a variety of metrics - but eight
games represents a small sample size.
For any Chelsea supporters getting carried away after league wins over
Fulham and Burnley, it's worth noting Opta ranks the Blues' fixture list to
be the third-easiest so far this season - yet they are still in the bottom
half of the table.
Whether Chelsea's improvement is sustainable will become clear between now
and Christmas, with matches against Arsenal, Tottenham, Manchester City,
Newcastle and Manchester United all contributing to a schedule that Opta
rates as the fourth-toughest during that period.
The Gunners are first up and will arrive in west London having won seven of
their last eight matches against Chelsea. In fact, having not claimed
victory at Stamford Bridge in nearly 10 years, Arsenal have now won on their
last three visits.
Beating up the Premier League's weakest sides is all well and good - but
ending Arsenal's dominance of their rivalry will provide the proof that is
needed to take Chelsea's resurgence seriously.
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