June 2024

As many as six Premier League clubs face having to sell players before the end of June in order to comply with the division's Profit and Sustainability Rules (PSR).

That date is the cut-off point for the financial year across the top flight, where clubs must show they have made losses of no more than £105m over the last three years - or less if they have spent some of that time outside the top flight.

Chelsea, Aston Villa, Newcastle, Everton, Nottingham Forest and Leicester are all under the pressure of losing a key asset or two, Sky Sports News understands, before the change over into the new financial year.

Each club's magic number remains closely a guarded secret, but the situations they find themselves in is leading towards a mini transfer deadline day of its own on June 30.

The transfer window opens just 16 days before that on June 14 - the starting date of Euro 2024 - and although clubs want to avoid disrupting the tournament by brokering deals for competing players, some interruption looks inevitable.

June 30 has become that proxy deadline day for clubs needing to get their finances in order because if they are found to have breached those spending regulations they may be liable for sanctions, including points deductions.

Key dates

June 30: Final day for clubs to reduce their three-year PSR losses to £105m (or less if they have spent time outside the Premier League)

December 31: The date when last season's accounts, including PSR calculations, must be submitted to the Premier League

May 25: Final day of the Premier League, by which time all PSR issues must be settled

Everton were deducted points by the Premier League twice last season for two different sets of breaches, totalling eight overall. Nottm Forest were also docked four points for a single breach.

There are other ways clubs can boost income before the end of the month, such as through new commercial deals, but selling assets is quicker and players present the simplest method.

Here, Sky Sports News breaks down which players could leave and where they could go, with football finance expert Kieran Maguire crunching the numbers...

Aston Villa: Villans may have to sell Luiz

Champions League qualification will not prevent Aston Villa from potentially crossing the threshold in this financial year, as the financial benefits kick-in from July 1, so they are understood to be looking at selling a player.

One candidate could well be Douglas Luiz, who is attracting interest from Juventus. Villa want more than £50m for the Brazil midfielder, so Juve will have to get inventive as they cannot afford the valuation Villa have put on him. They are prepared to offer Weston McKennie in any proposed deal.

Ollie Watkins is clearly a player that could fetch huge money - perhaps £100m - but Villa are loathe to lose their star goalscorer and there are not many clubs out there with £100m in the bank to spend on one player.

Matty Cash is on the lists at clubs like AC Milan but, as a full-back, he would not command a high fee.

'Grealish sale drop-off leaves a hole'

Football finance expert Kieran Maguire:

"Villa have been very successful on the pitch in the last two seasons, but that has come at a financial cost.

"The sale of Jack Grealish to Manchester City in August 2021 was great for PSR as he was a former academy player, but that £100m boost expires in June 2024 as PSR is assessed over a three-year period.

"Villa also spent over £200m on signings in the year that Grealish was sold, which has a legacy impact on amortisation charges in subsequent seasons.

"Villa’s wage bill has doubled since they were promoted to the Premier League and in 2022-23 they were paying £89 in wages for every £100 of income, which does not leave much for player signings and other overheads.

"Villa are rumoured to be pressing for an increase in the PSR limit from £105m to £135m which suggests they are concerned about compliance with the rules and a player sale could be needed."

Chelsea: Gallagher leads four potential homegrown sales

Chelsea have insisted they are confident they will stay in line with 2023/24 PSR parameters - but sources across the transfer market industry still believe they could make at least one sale before June 30.

Several academy graduates - Conor Gallagher chief among them - have been touted as their best hope of doing so, given they represent pure profit on the balance sheet.

It is no coincidence that interest is ramping up in Gallagher this week, with Aston Villa and Atletico Madrid joining Tottenham in pursuit of the England midfielder.

Ian Maatsen is another academy graduate that looks set to leave, with Borussia Dortmund in talks over a permanent deal for the full-back, while Armando Broja and Trevoh Chalobah are also on the market.

The imminent signing of Tosin on a free transfer to replace Thiago Silva also suggests Chelsea cannot spend before the end of this month.

'Amortisation rules to hit Chelsea'

Football finance expert Kieran Maguire:

"Chelsea have been the most successful Premier League team in recent years in terms of player sales, especially with academy graduates such as Fikayo Tomori, Tammy Abraham, Mason Mount and others generating large profits.

"These profits have helped Chelsea make up the shortfall in match-day income, caused by Stamford Bridge having a lower capacity than the other ‘Big Six’ clubs, as well as the huge transfer spend (£745m in 2022-23 alone) under both new and old ownership regimes.

"Chelsea’s losses were £211m in the two seasons to June 2023, although some of those costs will be exempt from PSR calculations. The tightening of the Premier League amortisation rules from the start of the 23-24 season will increase costs for Chelsea from their record £205m in 22-23. Therefore, a player sale may be required to help offset this significant expense."

Everton: Branthwaite or Calvert-Lewin could depart

Everton avoided relegation after a painful season that included two separate points deductions totalling eight points, after breaching PSR rules. They do not want a repeat of that in future.

Sky Sports News understands they have three key players of interest to other clubs, that they could sell to fetch the kind of money they need; Dominic Calvert-Lewin, Amadou Onana and Jarrad Branthwaite.

Onana seems to be the one they are most comfortable to part with and there is interest from abroad, but no deal agreed with any club yet. Manchester United are very keen on signing Branthwaite.

'Old issues still hang over Everton'

Football finance expert Kieran Maguire:

"There is an outstanding accounting issue in relation to interest charges on the new stadium that has to be resolved and, in addition, losses doubled to almost £90m in 2022-23, which will impact on Everton’s PSR calculations for the current season.

"It does seem intuitively harsh for a club to have a points deduction and still potentially face further financial challenges for a period in which they have already been punished.

"Everton do have legacy issues from the early years of Farhad Moshiri’s period of ownership, with ‘player costs’ of wages and amortisation increasing from £106m in 2016 to £237m by 2022-23.

"With Goodison Park generating less than £1m a game in match-day revenue the club are at a competitive disadvantage compared to some other clubs and have overspent as a result. A profitable player sale may therefore be necessary before June 30."

Leicester: Dewsbury-Hall reluctant to move on

Leicester's situation is one of the most complicated of all, with a PSR charge already hanging over them that could result in a points deduction next season.

They are also currently under a transfer registration embargo, although they have challenged it legally. Regardless, they are also under pressure to sell a player before June 30 to make sure they avoid another potential PSR rule breach.

Their clear candidate for sale is Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall, who was very influential in the now-departed Enzo Maresca's promotion team. Brighton, Brentford and Fulham have all been interested in Dewsbury-Hall but he is thought to be reluctant to leave Leicester unless it is for one of the very big teams in the Premier League or abroad.

Wingers Stephy Mavididi and Issahaku Fatawu also stood out in Leicester's team and have been watched by a raft of top clubs, while right-back James Justin also has admirers.

Centre-backs Wout Faes and Harry Souttar could also attract interest but not at the high fee that Leicester need.

'Leicester may need a rabbit out of the hat'

Football finance expert Kieran Maguire:

"Leicester already appear to have a problem in relation to their PSR position for the three years ended 30 June 2023.

"Leicester generated income in the summer 2023 market through the sale of Harvey Barnes and James Maddison and others, with other players leaving at the end of their contracts, which is a positive.

"The club lost £181m in the two seasons ending in 22/23 and will have had to pay promotion bonuses following promotion back to the Premier League.

"Leicester will also have the issue of their PSR maximum loss being reduced from £105m to £83m as they have just spent a season in the EFL.

"All of the above means that, unless Leicester’s accountants and lawyers can pull a rabbit out of the hat, they are at risk of breaching the rules unless profits are generated from player or other asset sales."

Newcastle: 'Prized asset' will need to depart

Chief executive Darren Eales has suggested that a prized asset will need to be sold to stay in line with PSR. Manager Eddie Howe wants to keep his best players but the likes of Bruno Guimaraes and Aleksander Isak are the ones that other clubs want.

Those clubs will have to stump up at least £100m per player, however, with Guimaraes having a release clause slightly north of that amount and Isak valued at roughly the same.

And there are not many clubs who could spend that amount on a single player, especially in Europe. Paris Saint-Germain have been linked with Guimaraes but they have moved their recruitment policy away from 'galactico-style' deals in favour of younger, homegrown talent in France.

Arsenal were linked with Isak in the past but have turned their attentions away from strikers of his profile.

'Caution may help Newcastle'

Football finance expert Kieran Maguire:

"Under former owner Mike Ashley, Newcastle were run as a sustainable club off the pitch but not a competitive one on it.

"The new owners have changed that business model and invested large sums in players, which has come at a significant financial loss of £146m in the two years to June 2023.

"This means that Newcastle were relatively cautious in the transfer market this season, as the club have always stated that they were fully behind the PSR rules and intended to comply with the cost constraints.

"Participation in the Champions League and new shirt sponsor deals will have helped boost revenues, meaning that Newcastle may be in a slightly more advantageous position compared to their peer group.”

Nottingham Forest: Hudson-Odoi, Gibbs-White at risk

Forest were also hit with a four-point deduction last season for breaching their PSR threshold and only narrowly avoided relegation because of it. They too will be desperate not to fall foul again.

It was a difficult season, but one or two players did stand out with their performances at times, several of which are relatively young with further development potential and may attract bigger clubs to come in for them.

Morgan Gibbs-White is the obvious candidate and he has been linked with a number of other Premier League teams, while wingers Calum Hudson-Odoi and Anthony Elanga also have admirers.

Defender Murillo has made a big impact since joining from Corinthians and, at only 22, has much more room for improvement. Defensive midfielder Danilo is another who has shown his potential and he scores highly in some data sets for his position.

'Forest's smaller loss allowance may require sales'

Football finance expert Kieran Maguire:

"Forest’s strategy of spending big following promotion to the Premier League has enabled the club to maintain its position in the top tier.

"Having just been promoted, though, puts Forest at a PSR disadvantage, being allowed to only lose £61m in the three years to June 2023 and £83m in the current season.

"The sale of Brennan Johnson, which formed part of Forest’s defence against Premier League charges and subsequent points deduction, will be included in the 2023-24 PSR calculations.

"Combined with the higher PSR limit, and some players being recruited and then leaving, Forest’s financial position is slightly better than it was a year ago, but some modest sales may still be needed to keep the right side of the line."