"I
am playing with confidence. I feel good and I am helping the team."
Chelsea may have just dropped points to several of their top-four rivals
after a goalless draw at Brentford on Wednesday night, but it's no surprise
that Kepa Arrizabalaga was so cheerful when speaking to Amazon Prime after
the game.
The clean sheet was the Blues' fifth in succession and extended their
unbeaten run to seven matches in all competitions. Kepa's confidence comes
from the fact he has been a key figure behind the team's upturn in form.
After warming the bench in all but one of Chelsea's seven matches under
Thomas Tuchel at the start of this season, the goalkeeper has been able to
reclaim the No 1 shirt under new head coach Graham Potter thanks to some
outstanding individual performances - and an unfortunately-timed injury to
the previous first choice, Edouard Mendy.
But football moves fast and, just seven weeks after a transfer window in
which he considered leaving Chelsea closed, Kepa now finally appears
comfortable playing under the status as the world's most expensive 'keeper.
The case for Kepa over Mendy
Kepa's first appearance of the season came in Tuchel's final game in charge
- the miserable 1-0 defeat away to Dinamo Zagreb at the start of September.
The assumption was Mendy would return to the side once he had shaken off a
knee injury but, instead, he has been consigned to the role of substitute
ever since.
After starting in the defeat to Dinamo - which he stopped from being even
more embarrassing thanks to a brilliant save to deny Stefan Ristovski in the
second half - Kepa has retained the No 1 shirt for all seven of the matches
Potter has overseen.
It's not just the stunning saves - the ones from Danny Ings and Jacob Ramsey
in the win over Aston Villa were particularly impressive - that has seen the
former Brighton boss keep faith in Kepa.
The graphic below compares the Spaniard's performance with Mendy's across a
variety of metrics this season and shows he is outperforming his team-mate
in a number of areas.
The higher number of clean sheets and fewer goals conceded can also be put
down to the team's improved defensive performance since Potter arrived -
after all, Tuchel had a similar impact immediately after replacing Frank
Lampard in January 2021 - but Kepa deserves his share of the credit.
The next graphic further demonstrates the positive impact Kepa has had on
Chelsea's results since usurping Mendy.
Again,
the increase in goals scored and points won can in no small way be
attributed to Potter's impact, but the difference when comparing the number
of shots Kepa and Mendy let in compared to the number of goals they are
expected to concede is stark.
Kepa's numbers show he is conceding just 0.25 goals per 90 minutes in the
Premier League - a full 0.9 fewer than expected. In contrast, Mendy's goals
conceded total is 0.06 higher than expected. It hardly paints him as a
liability, yet clearly demonstrates the extent to which he has been
outperformed by his deputy.
The 28-year-old has helped Chelsea to five consecutive clean sheets but he
has not recorded six in a row since arriving from Athletic Bilbao more than
four years ago. Helping the Blues to another shutout at home to Manchester
United on Saturday - live on Sky Sports - would be the perfect way to do so.
How has Kepa improved?
While the statistics show Kepa deserves his place in the starting XI, do
they also show he has improved as a player?
The answer appears to be yes. The table below shows that, not only is Kepa
conceding fewer goals and making more saves this season than during the rest
of his Chelsea career, but he's also been more authoritative in the air.
Kepa's progress this season
| All Comps, per 90 Mins |
Kepa This Season |
Kepa Before This Season |
| Goals Conceded |
0.38 |
1.07 |
| Saves |
2.75 |
2.17 |
| Passes Attempted |
26.63 |
28.67 |
| Crosses Caught or Punched |
1 |
0.69 |
At just over 6'0", Kepa is not one of the taller 'keepers around and his
ability to deal with high balls into the penalty area was criticised during
his previous spell as the Blues' No 1. But, perhaps under instruction from
Potter and his coaching staff or perhaps thanks to his new-found confidence,
Kepa is now far more proactive when handling aerial threats.
While four matches is an admittedly small sample size, Kepa's output in the
Premier League this season places him among the best in the division across
a range of metrics.
Given Chelsea have conceded just one goal in Kepa's four matches it's not
hard to see why he tops that leaderboard, but the fact he ranks third for
saves per 90 minutes shows he isn't playing behind an impenetrable defence.
Ranking first for punched clearances is further evidence of his improvement
under the high ball, while coming in second behind only Newcastle's Nick
Pope for regains (when a 'keeper comes off their line to win possession for
their team) demonstrates his suitability for Potter's style, which includes
defending with a high line.
How errors crept into Mendy's game
While Kepa's renaissance has been a welcome boost for Chelsea and Potter,
questions do need to be asked about why Mendy's form deserted him.
Injury was originally to blame for the Senegal international losing his
place against Dinamo and he was unfortunate to be sidelined for Potter's
first games in charge, handing Kepa a head start in the race to win the new
head coach's affections.
But Mendy could have had no complaints if his demotion had been based purely
on his performances, which were below his usually high standards. Compared
to his first two seasons at Stamford Bridge, the 30-year-old was conceding
more goals and recording fewer clean sheets this campaign, as well as
completing a lower percentage of his passes and fewer regains of possession.
Mendy's drop in standards could be traced back to last season, when a gaffe
with the ball at his feet handed West Ham a penalty in a 3-2 defeat at the
London Stadium in December - a game that also saw the 'keeper palm Arthur
Masuaku's cross into his own net to hand the Hammers a late winner.
Then, against Real Madrid in the Champions League quarter-finals in April,
Mendy underhit a pass to Antonio Rudiger when way outside his area that
allowed Karim Benzema to pinch possession and roll the ball into the empty
net during a 3-1 loss.
Another error occurred early this season during Chelsea's dismal 3-0 defeat
at Leeds, which began with Mendy again having his pocket picked while
dallying with the ball at his feet, allowing Brendon Aaronson to set the
hosts on their way.
And his most recent appearance - the 2-1 win over West Ham last month - was
capped with another mistake as he dropped the ball at the feet of Maxwel
Cornet to gift the Hammers a late leveller that was controversially
disallowed for a foul on the 'keeper.
Chelsea's defensive decline during the second half of Tuchel's reign has
been well documented and, as the starting goalkeeper for much of that time,
Mendy must shoulder his share of responsibility.
What now for Chelsea's 'two No 1s'?
Potter has so far been unwilling to verbally crown either Kepa or Mendy
since taking the Chelsea job - referring to them as "two No 1s" - but his
actions have done the talking. Kepa is undoubtedly the starter and is likely
to hold onto the role if he maintains his impressive form.
As well as being welcome news for the head coach, Kepa's comeback is a boost
for Todd Boehly and the rest of Chelsea's owners. The £71.6m the west London
club spent to sign the Spaniard in the summer of 2018 remains the highest
fee paid for a goalkeeper, and he reportedly receives a salary commensurate
with that status.
Kepa's role as a back-up meant finding a club willing to give Chelsea a
sizeable return on their investment and take on his wages was unlikely, with
Tuchel admitting earlier this season that, in the most recent transfer
window, the player "checked his options [but] they were not satisfying for
him or for us."
But Kepa's current displays help to make the fee Chelsea paid for him look a
little less reckless, while they will also serve to inflate his value should
any club decide to present a satisfactory offer.
However, Kepa's rise has put Chelsea and Mendy in a slightly awkward
situation. Reports last month suggested the club were keen to extend the
'keeper's contract - which expires in 2025 - but that he had turned down
their initial offer.
Whether Chelsea choose to return with a new proposal, and whether Mendy
would countenance signing it given he now finds himself on the bench,
remains to be seen.
But Potter is likely to put those concerns to one side and instead relish
having a goalkeeper in Kepa that is helping to establish the defensive
solidity that has underpinned so much of Chelsea's past success.
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