Team
news, stats and prediction ahead of Brentford vs Chelsea in the Premier
League on Saturday Night Football; kick-off 5.30pm.
Team news
Brentford are without Shandon Baptiste for their first Premier League clash
with west London neighbours Chelsea.
Grenada midfielder Baptiste dislocated his shoulder during the Bees' 2-1
victory at West Ham before the international break.
Kristoffer Ajer and Vitaly Janelt should be available after missing the West
Ham win through injury, while Ethan Pinnock has recovered from the knock
which forced him out of international duty with Jamaica.
Thiago Silva and Antonio Rudiger will miss out for Chelsea, with Thomas
Tuchel's defence stretched after the international break.
Silva was only due back in England on Friday afternoon, while Rudiger has
picked up a back injury.
Reece James, N'Golo Kante and Romelu Lukaku are all fit, but Hakim Ziyech is
unlikely to feature after suffering headaches and Christian Pulisic has
continued ankle trouble.
Jones Knows' prediction
Arsenal, Liverpool and West Ham have all been buzzed by Brentford - now it
could be Chelsea's turn.
Brentford's process in terms of their performance metrics certainly backs up
that taking 12 points from their opening seven Premier League matches is no
fluke. The start they have made is pretty phenomenal. Only six newly
promoted sides in Premier League history have taken more points at this
stage, and it's the most won after seven games since Hull City's fast start
in 2008. I covered the Bees' clash with West Ham and their first 30 minutes
was the most complete performance I've ever seen from a newly promoted team.
They made the Hammers - a team that finished sixth last season - look like
relegation candidates.
A look at the match prices for this west London derby certainly brings
forward the argument that Brentford are still being underestimated by the
markets. You can almost get 11/2 with Sky Bet for a home win and 5/2 for the
Bees to avoid defeat - it's a real tempter for a team that has only lost one
of their last 19 league games across two seasons. And that defeat was a
last-minute winner for Brighton in a game where there was nothing between
the teams.
I have decided to play a shorter price to get Brentford on my side though as
the Evens for both teams to score looks too good to turn down.
Chelsea's defensive process remains strong but certainly it's not at the
levels of last season. They are offering up good chances to the opposition.
A figure of 1.45 expected goals conceded per 90 minutes in their last eight
fixtures showcases that, albeit it's included matches against Liverpool and
Manchester City.
In fact, Chelsea have the biggest difference between goals conceded (3) and
expected goals against (8.6) in the Premier League after the opening seven
games - at 5.6. Perhaps this Chelsea defence isn't as watertight as the
actual numbers suggest? That makes the possibility of Brentford scoring in
this game more likely than the odds on offer. Get on the both-teams-to-score
train - it's best bet of the weekend material.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1
Opta stats
Brentford are winless in their last six meetings with Chelsea in all
competitions (D1 L5) since a 3-1 away win in February 1939. This is the
first league meeting between the sides since a 2-0 win for the Blues in
March 1947.
Chelsea have won their last two meetings with Brentford by a 4-0 scoreline,
with both of these fixtures coming in the FA Cup (February 2013 and January
2017).
Brentford have already drawn with Crystal Palace, and beaten both Arsenal
and West Ham this season. They're the first team in Premier League history
to remain unbeaten in each of their first three London derby matches in the
competition.
Chelsea have won each of their last six away London derbies in the Premier
League, and could become the first team in English Football League history
(top four tiers) to win seven such games in a row.
Brentford have won seven of their nine top-flight matches against sides
starting the day top of the table (L2), with this their first such match
since January 1947 (4-1 vs Wolves). The Bees' win rate of 78% against league
leaders is the best of any club in English top-flight history.
Chelsea have lost just one of their 12 Premier League away games under
Thomas Tuchel (W8 D3), having lost four of their last five on the road under
Frank Lampard. The Blues have kept six clean sheets in this run, shipping
seven goals in total.
Chelsea have the best shot conversion rate in the Premier League this season
(15.3%), as well as the best difference between goals scored (15), and
expected goals (11.8 - +3.2). At the other end meanwhile, Chelsea have the
best difference between goals conceded (3) and expected goals against (8.6)
in the Premier League this term (5.6).
Chelsea have had more different goalscorers than any other Premier League
side so far this season (12, excl. own goals). Only Arsenal in 2009-10 have
had more different goalscorers in their first seven games of a Premier
League campaign (13).
Yoane Wissa has scored five goals in his last five appearances in all
competitions for Brentford, averaging a goal every 47 minutes for the Bees
this season. Of all Premier League players in all competitions this season,
only Marcus Forss (37) and Cameron Archer (46) have a better
minutes-per-goal rate than the Congolese forward, though neither of those
players have scored in the Premier League so far.
Chelsea's Timo Werner scored his first goal in 10 Premier League games
against Southampton last time out. The German has only scored in consecutive
league appearances once for the Blues, doing so in November 2020.
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