Team
news, stats and prediction ahead of Chelsea vs Brighton in the Premier
League on Wednesday; kick-off 7.30pm.
Team news
Chelsea boss Thomas Tuchel must decide on whether to start striker Romelu
Lukaku after his goalscoring return off the substitutes' bench in the 3-1
win over Aston Villa.
Lukaku has been blighted by an ankle injury and then Covid-19 since October
and while Tuchel was delighted with his impact, he said it was "not fair" to
force him back into action for a full half.
Tuchel admitted his celebrations at Villa Park were tempered because of his
concerns surrounding his players' health, having also lost N'Golo Kante and
Thiago Silva to injury - and both are set to miss the Seagulls encounter.
Ben Chilwell (knee) remains out while Kai Havertz (match fitness), Timo
Werner (illness) and Ruben Loftus-Cheek (ankle) will be assessed.
Brighton must wait to discover if influential forward Leandro Trossard will
be fit for their Premier League trip to Stamford Bridge.
The Belgium international set Albion on course for the 2-0 Boxing Day win
over Brentford with a delightful volley before being withdrawn at the break
due to a hamstring issue.
Seagulls head coach Graham Potter described the substitution as
precautionary but is unsure whether key man Trossard will be available for
Wednesday's visit to Stamford Bridge.
Danny Welbeck - who replaced Trossard - and Steven Alzate came on in the
second period following three-month absences and will be pushing for starts.
Jones Knows prediction
I'm very pro-Brighton in this one. The market is far too skewed towards
Chelsea, who can be well left alone at 4/11 with Sky Bet. This should be a
very tactical affair with both teams vying to control the game through
possession and expert organisation at the back where chances are hard to
come by for the opposition. That is seen through both teams defensive
processes over the past 12 months in the Premier League. If you run the
numbers since Thomas Tuchel was appointed in January, Chelsea (0.8) and
Brighton (1.02) sit second and third respectively in the expected goals
against per 90 minute charts with only Manchester City (0.7) faring better.
It's that defensive structure shown from Brighton that is providing the
platform for them to consistently trouble the top-ranked teams in the
Premier League. The 2-2 draw with Liverpool at Anfield from earlier this
season being a perfect example. The big caveat with Brighton is that they
are a very untrustworthy team in front of goal which does make the outright
away win hard to fancy in this one despite 8/1 with Sky Bet being available.
However, in their last 23 games against teams that finished in the top-nine
of the Premier League last season, Brighton have only lost three games by
more than one goal. Included in that run was a 0-0 draw at Stamford Bridge
last season where Graham Potter's men had more shots and corners than their
top-four chasing hosts. That means I'm more than happy to back Brighton with
a +2 handicap goal start, meaning we'll win if Brighton win, draw or lose by
one goal.
SCORE PREDICTION: 0-0
Opta stats
Chelsea have never lost a league game against Brighton, winning 10 and
drawing two of their 12 games. It's the most the Blues have faced an
opponent without ever losing in their league history.
Brighton have never scored in six away league games against Chelsea (D1 L5),
with last season's 0-0 draw their first ever point at Stamford Bridge. In
English Football League history, only two sides have ever faced a side more
often on the road without scoring - Bradford Park Avenue vs Leyton Orient
(8) and Barrow vs Northampton Town (7).
Having lost eight of their first 12 Premier League away games in London (W2
D2), Brighton have lost just three of their last 13 visits to the capital in
the competition (W2 D8).
Brighton have never led in eight Premier League meetings with Chelsea. In
the competition's history, only two sides have faced another more without
leading for a single minute - Sheffield United against Manchester City (10)
and Portsmouth against Chelsea (14).
Chelsea have lost their final league game in just one of the last 18
calendar years (W12 D5), losing 3-1 at home to Aston Villa in 2011.
Brighton lost their final league game of 2020 (0-1 vs Arsenal), last losing
such games in consecutive calendar years in 2011 and 2012.
Chelsea have shipped five goals in their last four Premier League home
games, more than they had in their previous nine combined (4). The Blues
haven't gone five league games without a clean sheet at Stamford Bridge
since April 2017.
Brighton have lost just once away from home in the Premier League this
season (W2 D5), having lost each of their last three on the road in the
2020-21 campaign. However, the Seagulls are winless in their last six away
league games, having won their first two this season.
Chelsea have scored 3+ goals in nine different Premier League games so far
this season, with only Liverpool (10) doing so more often than the Blues.
Chelsea midfielder Jorginho has scored 10 Premier League penalties in 2021,
a record in a single calendar year in the competition. Meanwhile, of players
to have netted at least 10 Premier League goals, the Italian has scored the
highest share from the penalty spot (89% - 17/19).
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