The
news that their side would be forced to go into the biggest game of their
season without their record signing would usually be enough to induce at
least a mild form of panic among a fanbase, but the fact that Romelu
Lukaku's injury-enforced absence from Tuesday's trip to Real Madrid has
failed to generate more than minor headlines reflects just how much he has
struggled since returning to Chelsea this season.
Lukaku was signed from Inter Milan for £97.5m last August and was seen as
the final piece of the jigsaw that would allow Thomas Tuchel to solve the
puzzle of how to end Manchester City and Liverpool's domestic dominance.
But despite striking four times in his first four games - which included a
goal in an impressive second Chelsea debut at Arsenal and two against Aston
Villa - the goals quickly dried up for the Belgian.
Lukaku has continued to underwhelm to such an extent that he now finds
himself behind Kai Havertz in the pecking order to be the No 9 at Stamford
Bridge, and the German is set to lead the line again when Chelsea bid to
overturn a 3-1 deficit in the Bernabeu and progress to the Champions League
semi-finals.
Lukaku has been ruled out of the game with an Achilles injury, but his
absence is unlikely to have disrupted Tuchel's gameplan, given the
28-year-old's only starts since mid-February have come in the FA Cup.
Lukaku did make an appearance from the bench in the first leg against Real
but, with his side two goals down and in desperate need of inspiration, he
missed a glorious chance just minutes after coming on, a scene that
perfectly summed up how his return to the club he supported as a teenager
has gone sideways.
Lukaku will now be deprived of the chance to make amends for that miss in
the second leg and will instead be forced to watch from the sidelines, where
he may contemplate where things have gone wrong for him this season, why
Havertz has been able to succeed where he has failed, and whether his return
to west London was in fact doomed from the start.
More goals, more passes, more ball
recoveries - the case for Havertz over Lukaku
Since Lukaku's now infamous performance at Crystal Palace on February 19,
which saw the man signed for nearly £100m touch the ball just seven times in
90 minutes, he has started just two matches, both of which were against
lower league opposition in the FA Cup.
While that afternoon at Selhurst Park appeared to be a tipping point for
Lukaku, it was also a turning point for Havertz, who replaced the Belgian as
Thomas Tuchel's preferred No 9 after that game and has gone on to score
seven goals in nine starts.
The fact that Havertz is grasping his opportunity to lead the line is
welcome news for Chelsea given the sizeable investment they made in him
nearly two years ago, but it has presented the problem of what to do with
Lukaku.
It seems untenable for a player of Lukaku's undoubted quality to be warming
the bench for a prolonged period, but the statistics below show why Tuchel's
preference for Havertz to lead the line is entirely justified.
The German scores more goals per 90 minutes in the Premier League than
Lukaku, while he also attempts more shots and steers more of them on target.
Havertz's comfort playing in various positions - he has spent much of his
career playing either on the wing or behind a main striker - may explain why
he offers far more in the build-up than Lukaku, as shown by the fact that he
completes more than double the amount of passes than his team-mate per 90
minutes.
It's not just Havertz's personal statistics that justify his inclusion at
the expense of Lukaku; as the graphic below shows, Chelsea perform better in
a variety of metrics - including goals, final-third completed passes and
ball recoveries in the final third - when Tuchel plays his countryman as his
central striker.
Why has Lukaku failed to find his feet?
Needless to say, Lukaku's total of five goals in 20 Premier League games
since returning to Chelsea is far less than he or the club expected, and not
what the European and world champions paid all that money for.
The 28-year-old's output is even more surprising when contrasted with his
exceptional performances for Inter Milan in Serie A last season, when he
played a key role in their first Italian title for 11 years.
Only Cristiano Ronaldo - then of Juventus - scored more goals than Lukaku in
Serie A in the 2020/21 campaign, but since returning to the Premier League,
Belgium's all-time top scorer is recording fewer goals, shots, touches in
the box and assists.
It's hard to make the argument that Chelsea don't provide enough service to
their striker. Compared to the Inter side in which Lukaku thrived last
season, Tuchel's team attempt more final-third passes, more long passes,
more through balls and more crosses.
One key difference between the two sides, though, is that Lukaku was
supported by Lautaro Martinez last season in Antonio Conte's preferred 3-5-2
formation, whereas he usually has two attacking midfielders playing behind
him when leading the line for Chelsea. Inter's system allowed Lukaku to
occupy positions in the middle and in the right channel, whereas he plays a
more central role under Tuchel.
In Lukaku's controversial interview with Sky Italy at the end of last year,
he questioned the head coach's system, saying Tuchel had "decided to play a
different formation". Was that a reference to the striker's desire to play
with a strike partner?
But it's not as though Tuchel hasn't given Lukaku the opportunity to play
alongside another striker this season - he has done so on six occasions,
with the Belgian's output declining in a number of key metrics compared to
when he lines up as a lone striker.
Chelsea lined up in a 3-5-2 formation for the visit of Manchester City in
September, with Lukaku up front alongside Timo Werner, but the Blues failed
to record a shot on target in a 1-0 home defeat.
That performance caused Tuchel to admit his tactics were wrong, saying: "We
were too deep. There was no connection [with Lukaku] and this was a team
problem, not an individual problem."
Chelsea's defenders showing up forwards in
front of goal
But while the statistics make grim reading for Lukaku, it's perhaps harsh to
single him out as an underperforming forward in Chelsea's team. In fact,
there's an argument to say many of the Blues' attacking players aren't
pulling their weight in front of goal - a concern given their need to score
at least twice just to take the Champions League game at Real Madrid into
extra time.
Mason Mount is the only member of Tuchel's squad to reach double figures in
the Premier League this season, while none of Lukaku, Timo Werner, Christian
Pulisic, Hakim Ziyech or Callum Hudson-Odoi have scored more than five times
in the top flight.
Chelsea's forwards have even been shown up by their more junior team-mates
currently on loan around the Premier League. Conor Gallagher has scored more
league goals this season than any Blues player other than Mount, while
Armando Broja's six strikes is just one behind Havertz.
But on the other hand, Chelsea have a remarkable knack of finding goals from
other areas, particularly their defenders. Reece James is the top-scoring
defender in the Premier League with five goals, while Chelsea's defenders as
a group have combined to score 19 times this season - just one fewer than
Norwich's entire team have managed in 31 matches.
Lukaku following in famous footsteps?
Tuchel suggested in the wake of Lukaku's seven touches at Palace that
history may be against his striker in his quest to become a regular
goalscorer at Stamford Bridge, saying: "There is a history of strikers
struggling a little bit at Chelsea so it may not be the easiest place in the
world for strikers."
"I don't know why it's like this," Tuchel added. "In my opinion, Chelsea are
a team considered a strong defensive team, a physical team, that has a
certain attitude when in competitive football."
Lukaku is certainly in good company when it comes to being a big-name
striker who has failed to meet expectations at Stamford Bridge. Andriy
Shevchenko, Fernando Torres and Alvaro Morata all arrived for huge fees but
struggled to varying degrees, while Radamel Falcao and Gonzalo Higuain
endured underwhelming loan spells in west London.
In fact, since Didier Drogba - undoubtedly Chelsea's best striker over the
past two decades - left the club for the final time in the summer of 2015,
only Diego Costa, who scored 52 Premier League goals in 89 games, could
claim to have been an unqualified success up front for the Blues.
Tammy Abraham's total of 21 goals in 56 league games is perhaps better than
would be expected given Tuchel barely used the England striker, while
Olivier Giroud's 17 in 75 doesn't reflect the value that he offered as a
target man.
However, there is no doubt that Chelsea have lacked a prolific scorer for a
number of seasons, which is demonstrated by the barely believable fact that
Eden Hazard's 28 goals makes him their highest scorer in the Premier League
since the start of the 2017/18 campaign, even though he left the club nearly
three years ago.
For context, that places Lukaku's Belgium team-mate joint-33rd for goals in
the top flight in that time. Over the same period, Harry Kane has scored 100
times, while Mohamed Salah leads the league with 115.
Lukaku may look at this and believe Tuchel was right when he said history
may be against him - after all, it seems that scoring goals on a consistent
basis as Chelsea's No 9 is far harder than it should be. But it's also clear
that Lukaku isn't carrying out the job he was brought in to do, which was to
score the goals that allowed the Blues to close the gap on Liverpool and
City.
In the meantime, Tuchel has settled on a system without Lukaku that has
continued to allow his side to pick up points, while Havertz has filled the
void to such an extent that it's tough to see how the record signing
reclaims his place in the side as the season enters its final stretch -
particularly if the German helps Chelsea to an improbable European
semi-final.
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