Chelsea
are eight points clear at the top of the Premier League, but did their
failure to qualify for the Champions League or Europa League last season
help their title charge?
"In some ways it's good, in other ways maybe not," Blues 'keeper Thibaut
Courtois told Chelseafc.com when asked whether Chelsea's lack of European
competition was an advantage.
"The other year, when we were champions, we had European football so I don't
think it makes a big difference."
But is Courtois correct? Or does missing out on European football boost
Premier League form?
Over the last 10 years, the current top six teams in the Premier League have
improved their league position by three places, on average, when they've not
been playing in Europe. That's a significant rise.
League position without European football, compared to previous season with
(current top six clubs)
Team
Season without Europe League position
Improvement on previous season in Europe
Liverpool
2011/12
8
-2
Liverpool
2013/14
2
+5
Man CIty
2009/10
5
+5
Man Utd
2014/15
4
+3
Tottenham
2009/10
4
+4
Tottenham, for example, can point to claiming their first top-four finish in
21 years in 2010 when they didn't have any continental competition.
Spurs claimed 70 points that season, 19 more than the previous campaign when
they were in the UEFA Cup.
Similarly, Manchester United missed out on European qualification for the
2014/15 season and went on to finish fourth in the league - a considerable
improvement from seventh the previous season.
A lack of European football was also attributed to boosting Liverpool's
title tilt in 2013/14, when their points total of 84 dwarfed their hauls of
61 and 62 in the seasons before and after, when they were involved in the
Europa League and Champions League.
Just last season, Leicester won the Premier League with no European football
distracting them from their domestic duties.
It's been argued the added workload of Champions League fixtures has
contributed to their struggles this season.
In fact, of the Premier League's current top six, over the last 10 years,
Liverpool are the only club to have finished in a lower position without
European football than a previous season with. And that happened just once,
in 2011/12.
Why could European football be a hindrance?
The increased number of fixtures is often cited as the main issue.
With European games to contend with and the travelling involved, teams are
supposedly sapped of energy for Premier League matches and left with less
time to prepare for domestic opposition.
But that's a theory dismissed by Courtois.
"Everybody wants to play in Europe and if you're in the rhythm of playing a
game every three or four days, sometimes you can play better, even though
it's harder at the end of the season," he explained.
"We have a lot of people on the bench who want to play and maybe haven't had
as many minutes as they deserve, and if we had European football they would
have played more minutes."
Out of the top six clubs, Chelsea have played the fewest games with 30 -
excluding the Checkatrade Trophy - while Liverpool, who also missed out on
Europe this season, have played the second fewest with 34.
In contrast, Manchester United's Europa League exploits have extended their
fixture tally to 39 this season - more than any other top six club.
Top six clubs' number of games played 2016/17 (all comps)
Team Games played
Man Utd
39
Man City
37
Arsenal
36
Tottenham 35
Liverpool
34
Chelsea
30
European football could also add decisively to the workload during the
run-in - should Tottenham, Arsenal, Man City and Manchester United progress
to the latter stages of their respective competitions.
United could still face another 28 fixtures, more than twice the number of
out-of-form Liverpool who only have a guaranteed 13 games left after exits
from the EFL Cup and FA Cup.
Chelsea only face a maximum of 18 more games if they progress in the FA Cup,
so the Blues' workload could be considerably lighter than all of their
rivals except Liverpool during the crucial latter stages of the season.
Top six clubs' maximum number of games remaining 2016/17 (all comps)
Team Max games
remaining
Man Utd
28
Tottenham
27
Arsenal
25
Man City
25
Chelsea
18
Liverpool
13
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