Are
results in pre-season a guide to form in the coming campaign? We take a look
at the past experiences of Chelsea, Arsenal, Liverpool and Manchester United
in discussing the importance or otherwise of a good pre-season…
"Pre-season is fake, for good and for bad. If you're very bad, it's fake,
and if you're too good, it's fake." Jose Mourinho's reaction to Chelsea's
4-2 defeat to New York Red Bulls revealed how little stock the Blues boss
puts in pre-season results. But is he right?
Mourinho could point to a 3-0 defeat to Werder Bremen last summer - a game
from which he insisted he "learned nothing"- as evidence of the
insignificance of pre-season results. His Chelsea team subsequently embarked
upon a 21-game unbeaten run in the season proper.
But what of his Premier League rivals? Can Arsenal take confidence from
victory in the Emirates Cup? And was Manchester United's 3-1 defeat of
Barcelona an indication of their improvement under Van Gaal? The evidence is
mixed...
Arsenal
Lifting a trophy in a tournament laid on by your own sponsors in which you
play at home and invite the other three teams at your discretion cannot be
taken too seriously. However, failing to perform in those conditions might
be an indication of problems.
Since the inaugural Emirates Cup in 2007, Arsenal have failed to finish in
the top two of the tournament they host on three occasions. There were even
boos for the team when denied by New York Red Bulls in 2011 and again when
two goals down against Napoli in 2013.
The pre-season is to prepare to be efficient for the Premier League so come
back in one month. The real truth starts on August 8th against West Ham.
Although Arsenal have been remarkably consistent in their Premier League
finishes throughout this period, the only three times they have lost one of
their first two league matches were in these seasons when they struggled at
the Emirates Cup.
In contrast, their most successful start during this time was the 2007/08
campaign in which Arsenal won 14 of their first 15 games. That summer they
won the Emirates Cup, with victory in the Amsterdam Tournament also adding
to the feel-good factor.
Liverpool
The Gunners were actually still five points clear at the top of the Premier
League in mid-February of that 2007/08 season before fading badly.
Pre-season exertions? That wasn't a concern for the great Liverpool side of
the 1980s who knew how to ease their way into it.
Liverpool showed that conserving energy and building their way into a season
might be a better approach and lost high-profile pre-season games ahead of
each of their European Cup winning seasons between 1977 and 1984.
In particular, Bob Paisley's team suffered the ignominy of coming last in
the Rotterdam Tournament in 1983 - behind Hamburg, Standard Liege and
Feyenoord - before going on to win their fourth European Cup the following
May.
Man Utd
At the other end of the spectrum, there has been Manchester United's
pre-season form under Louis van Gaal. United have won all of their matches
so far this summer, including that stand-out victory over European champions
Barcelona in California.
So does this hint at an improvement? Not necessarily, given that they won
five or their six games last summer - putting seven past Los Angeles Galaxy
and beating Roma, Real Madrid, Valencia and Liverpool. Even their draw with
Inter culminated in a penalty shoot-out victory.
United then proceeded to make a miserable start to Premier League life under
Van Gaal, losing at home to Swansea before failing to beat Sunderland and
Burnley. They were still down in the bottom half of the table late in
September following a 5-3 loss at Leicester.
Conclusion
Mourinho is right about the extremes. A superb pre-season doesn't
automatically precede success and poor results are not necessarily cause for
concern. Even so, neither Van Gaal nor Arsene Wenger will be complaining.
There's an old rule. If in doubt, win.
top