The
2014/15 Barclays Premier League season has some act to follow.
Last season was compelling from start to finish, there were 1,052 goals,
drama galore and so many great memories, incidents and stories.
It seems an age since that memorable last day when I was on the pitch at the
Etihad with a jubilant Vincent Kompany, before he was part of the group that
hijacked Manuel Pellegrini from my interview and gave him the bumps. Both
will be part of the Premier League launch which I will be hosting live on
the new-look Sky Sports News HQ from 7am on Wednesday.
Like you, I'm sure, I can't wait for it all to start and I’m itching to get
up to Newcastle for the first Super Sunday of the season. We will see the
top four from last season all live on Sky Sports on the opening weekend.
Last season will take some beating but I'm expecting it to be even more
competitive at the top this time around. The lead changed hands an
incredible 25 times last term and it's not hard to see a similar scenario as
Sky Bet have the top five teams all at 10/1 or less.
Manchester City (2/1 to win the title with Sky Bet, 1/25 to finish
in the Top 4)
Vincent Kompany was hugely impressive in the interview after he lifted the
trophy in May. The City skipper talked about winning the title merely being
the start of a journey and how the club wanted to build, grow and create a
dynasty. He had Graeme Souness nodding with approval.
No one can doubt Kompany's desire. However, as Graeme and Gary Neville will
tell you, despite doing it numerous times themselves, retaining the League
title is incredibly hard. Manuel Pellegrini did a terrific job uniting and
harmonising the squad but can he now motivate them to do it all again? He
got the players smiling again, can he get them winning again? Staying at the
top is one of the hardest things in sport.
The uncertainty over Yaya Toure's future, the implications plus penalties
from Financial Fair Play and the lack of new faces this summer has seen City
drift out to second favourites at 2/1 with Sky Bet.
On paper, they remain the team to beat. As both my Monday Night Football
colleagues frequently point out, the spine of Hart-Kompany-Yaya Toure-Sergio
Aguero is the best in the league. By a distance.
Joe Hart's place is likely to come under pressure again this season with the
arrival of Willy Caballero, while the injuries that have plagued Aguero over
the last two seasons and at the World Cup have to be a concern. David Silva
looks certain to star again, while Stevan Jovetic has looked sharp in
pre-season and ready to make up for lost time. If he stays at the club, I
will be backing Jovetic at 8/1 to be Manchester City's top scorer this
season (Sergio Aguero is 4/5).
After what happened in the season after they last won the League, people are
bound to question Manchester City's hunger. We will learn a lot from their
first fixture of the season. Newcastle away, live on Super Sunday. Their
hosts could be resurgent after a successful summer in the transfer market,
which has brought back some optimism in the North East and this is just the
type of fixture where City struggled early on last season.
If the champions’ desire to retain the Premier League rolls on from their
imperious finish to the last campaign, then they should be firm favourites
to win it again.
Chelsea (Title: 15/8, Top 4: 1/25)
Chelsea have been all the rage with the punters and it's easy to see why.
That was not a 'Jose Mourinho team' last season, especially before
Christmas. After throwing it away at Stoke in December, Jose clearly had had
enough and decided to shut up shop and resign himself to laying the
foundations for a title assault this season. He did so quite brilliantly.
The defence became rock solid and ended with a Premier League high 18 clean
sheets. Two of Europe's finest, Thibaut Courtois and Filipe Luis, have been
added to that impressive unit. Gary Cahill is a must for every team in the
Sky Sports Fantasy Football League. With Cesar Azpilicueta free to move back
to his natural position of right back it will be interesting to see what
happens to Branislav Ivanovic, who I thought was an unsung hero last season.
Mourinho stopped the team conceding goals and even went close to winning the
league despite not having a regular goal scorer. That has been addressed
with the arrival of Diego Costa and the morale-boosting return of Didier
Drogba, which is a masterstroke as it eclipses the departure of fans’
favourites Frank Lampard and Ashley Cole. Cesc Fabregas is an inspired
signing and is another clever piece added to the Mourinho jigsaw.
Jose laid the foundations last season and now has a team in the Mourinho
mould.This is one powerful unit. They won't concede many goals and they will
be dynamite at set pieces. They will grind out results when required. My one
concern is what Roman Abramovich will make of it all.
We know that Jose's the master at winning big games. That could be crucial
this season. Their win at Manchester City was one of the performances of the
season, while they did a proper job on Liverpool in April.
We will get a first look at Chelsea on the opening Monday Night Football at
Burnley. All Jose's pieces are now in place for Chelsea to be serious title
challengers.
Liverpool (Title: 10/1, Top 4: evens)
Liverpool fans must be sick to death of people questioning how they will
cope without Luis Suarez.
How will they replace his 31 Premier League goals? Comparisons with
Tottenham and the loss of Gareth Bale are inevitable. Like Spurs, they have
re-spent the money on a number of players, which is bound to get the critics
sharpening their knives. However, the difference is that most of the new
signings have Premier League experience.
We will see them for the first time in the first game on Super Sunday, which
is the delicious prospect of Liverpool v Southampton. The ex-Southampton
contingent should hit the ground running. Dejan Lovren is a classy defender
and should take the step up in his stride, while Adam Lallana is desperately
unlucky to miss the start but has the mentality and talent to be a star at
Anfield.
You sense a turning point for Brendan Rogers was when he looked round at his
bench when they were trailing in that all-important clash with Chelsea at
Anfield and saw how few options he had. Ricky Lambert will offer him
something completely different and Rogers should have much more flexibility
this time.
He will need it because this is going to be a much more demanding season.
The challenge of the Champions League, along with the departure of Suarez,
is why Liverpool are double figures to win the League and the outsiders of
the 'big five' to finish in the top four.
Arsenal (Title: 13/2, Top 4: 1/2)
If only Arsenal could match Chelsea's habit of getting results in big
matches. Arsenal were top of the league for 128 days last season yet ended
it in a scrap with Everton to finish in the top four. Injuries to Aaron
Ramsey and Theo Walcott were damaging but it was the thrashings at Chelsea,
Manchester City and Liverpool that proved fatal to Arsenal's title
challenge.
Pre-season has been mixed. While the Gunners were brilliant against Benfica
in the Emirates Cup, old fallibilities returned the following day as Monaco
over-ran them in midfield. The missing ingredient is power. They need some
of the midfield dynamism that Nemanja Matic gives Chelsea and Yaya Toure
provides in spades for City.
The Premier League is a better place with a strong, competitive Arsenal
side. The signs are that Arsene Wenger and his team are ready to give it a
real go. Alongside Cesc Fabregas, Alexis Sanchez is the signing of the
summer. With Theo Walcott cutting in from the right and Alexis from the
left: good luck defences!
I also hope the new £35m man gets to play through the middle as his pace
will bring out the best in Mesut Ozil. He will thrive having pace in front
of him and those darting runs to pick out. A more static target-man like
Olivier Giroud does not suit Ozil's style and he could look a completely
different player this season, especially with a World Cup winner's medal to
boost his confidence.
Arsenal needed more pace. That's been addressed and they have ticked that
box. Now they need to add power and find the key to winning those
all-important big matches. Then Arsenal will be the real deal.
Everton (Title: 125/1, Top 4: 13/2)
With Roberto Martinez at the helm, Everton are guaranteed another good
season. They've had a decent summer, securing the service of the key men
from last season, Gareth Barry, Ross Barkley and Romelu Lukaku. John Stones
is England's most promising young defender, while Tim Howard will feel ten
feet tall after a magnificent World Cup, which was followed by appearances
on America's top chat shows. With the game booming in the States, Howard is
now a huge star.
Everton have two big problems. 1: The dreaded Europa League and the rigours
that entails. 2: The top five, let alone the top four, look harder to break
into than ever.
Tottenham (Title: 66/1, Top 4: 7/2)
Spurs have the same problem. They could have an excellent season and finish
sixth. Will the hierarchy settle for that?
Mauricio Pochettino already seems to have brought some stability to White
Hart Lane. We will learn a lot more about him this season as he addresses
the media in English. He has a great sense of humour and the Southampton
players loved him.
If Pochettino can bring out the best in Roberto Soldado and Erik Lamela then
he will be in business. Early signs are encouraging. Soldado has looked very
sharp as he tries to forget a nightmare first year in North London, which
yielded only six goals (four of those from the penalty spot) following his
£26m move from Valencia. Pochettino is sure to fill him with confidence and
if he can get him firing, Soldado could be a big price at 40/1 to be the
League's top goalscorer this time around.
Manchester United (Title: 5/1, Top 4: 1/2)
As office workers around the country will know, United fans have got their
mojo back. And rightly so because, although it's early days, Louis van Gaal
and Manchester United look an excellent match. The excitement has returned.
United provide the x-factor for the new season. We will see them three times
on Super Sunday in the first five weeks of the season. No one knows quite
what to expect. Pundits seem to be predicting everything from them winning
the League to finishing fifth. Mind you, that is what the Premier League is
all about. Its unpredictability is such a big part of its popularity.
One thing you CAN predict is that having no involvement in Europe is a
massive factor in United's favour for their Premier League campaign. Just
look at how it helped Liverpool in the second half of last season. Van Gaal
will relish plotting for their fixtures and stirring the pot while his
rivals are embroiled in the Champions League.
However, having a bet or strong opinion on the title is fraught with danger
in early August. The picture could look so different by the end of the
month. For example, if Van Gaal signs Mats Hummels and Arturo Vidal it could
be bingo time for United. Anyone who read my World Cup preview and views on
Chile will know just how good I think Vidal is. What a combination he and
Ander Herrera could be.
The speed with which Herrera moves the ball, means he has so far looked
every inch a United player. Further forward, Juan Mata drifting in central
areas behind Robin van Persie and Wayne Rooney could be dynamite.
As we wait to see who will be captain, leadership on the field is a worry.
Rio Ferdinand and Nemanja Vidic had such a presence, while Patrice Evra's
importance in the dressing room should not be under-estimated. Van Gaal will
certainly lead from the front but it's anyone's guess how his team will
fare. The one thing you can guarantee is that it's going to be an
entertaining ride - on and off the pitch - as we find out.
The chasers
In the rest of the League, questions abound. How will Ronald Koeman get on
after the heart of the Southampton team was ripped out in the summer? The
Saints are only 9/2 for relegation now but I reckon they will do better than
most people think. It usually pays to go against the crowd and I'd rather
back Southampton at 6/4 for another top half finish. Feedback from training
under Koeman has been excellent and there's still plenty of talent at St
Mary's. Fraser Forster would be a superb signing in Southampton's 'trouble'
position in recent seasons, while Harrison Reed is a name to look out for
over the next few months. Dusan Tadic has also made a highly encouraging
start.
How will sides like Sunderland, Stoke and others who've shown ambition and
made a host of exciting signings fare? Are Newcastle on their way back? Can
Big Sam galvanise West Ham? How will the three new boys get on?
These are all ingredients for what's going to be another thrilling Premier
League season. Roll on next weekend.
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